So to summarize:


Dud technologies: Never reach 10% penetration, are money losers, do not create an industry.


Ballistic technologies: Reach between 30% and 70% penetration but are substituted quickly. They are profitable but only for the duration of their ascent. Generally do not create industries, ecosystems or network effects.


Inertial technologies: Have steady growth but never reach ubiquity. They are bound by frictions which impede their broad adoption but also impede their substitution. They do create industries and network effects but suffer from corrosion and monopoly.


Perpetual technologies: They reach ubiquity, usually quickly and remain there indefinitely. Substituted only by improvements which supersede performance (e.g. Color TV vs. B&W TV). Usually solve a universal problem everybody has. Create disruptive growth and have world-changing effects.


Knowing in advance which category a technology will reach can be very valuable. Not only can investment be directed, but career decisions, education choices and fundamental research can be better allocated.


The question is therefore how to tell early enough where an emergent technology fits in this categorization.

I’ll watch anything with fighting robots at least once.

Ta da.

The Apple Watch is actually more like a framework or series of products than a single product. Whereas, previously, Apple’s new product launches have centred around single monolithic models (some of which were later extended, as in the case of the iPad Mini or iPhone 5C), the Apple Watch debuts with a dizzying range of aesthetic and functional options, resulting in millions of possible permutations.

This article summarizes twelve key lessons that machine learning researchers and practitioners have learned. These include pitfalls to avoid, important issues to focus on and answers to common questions.

Happy Labor Day!

Happy Labor Day!

“…it turns out that a great way to compete with GMS is not to compete head on with Google, but to control other critical points of the mobile operating system experience. With the shift to over the top communication apps a new critical mobile operating system service is emerging. Specifically, Facebook is now in a position to offer a preload of “Facebook Mobile Services” (FMS) that includes Whatsapp, Instagram, Paper, Messenger, and other Facebook apps and services. Combined, these apps represent an emerging mobile communication suite that is so core to the mobile experience, it puts Facebook on par with Google in terms of leverage on the Android ecosystem.”

Spoon woman (at Nasher Sculpture Center)